Concept and Methodology

The innovation in ISOBAR concept applied to network management is focused on:

  • Improved Collaborative ATFCM (ConOps and AUs involvement): New flight planning services with enriched DCB and MET information will give to civil Airspace Users the flexibility to optimize their operational flight plans and to accommodate their business needs without compromising optimum ATM system outcome and the performances of all stakeholders.
  • Non-Nominal Weather Situations and Probabilistic Storm Prediction: In the ISOBAR project, forecasts of probability of convection will be improved for tactical lead times by increasing the update frequency and the spatial resolution.
  • AI Demand Prediction: As a progress beyond analytical and deterministic methods, Machine Learning libraries will be developed to predict probabilistic demand variability associated to probabilistic forecasts of weather cells. Moreover, demand prediction will take into account AU’s needs and their possible reactions to weather forecasts.
  • Meteo and ATM Data integration: The vision of ISOBAR is to transform forecasts in tailored and consistent meteorological information with the potential to be deployed as a NM service.
  • Probabilistic DCB Imbalance: Automation will be introduced to reduce uncertainty in the process and to provide operators with better situational awareness thanks to the development of the technological components of ISOBAR.
  • Learning-based DCB Solution: ISOBAR will leverage the latest advances in machine learning to present a learning-based DCB solver in such a way that the hotspot mitigation will be implemented in a more holistic way where the uncertainty profiles of both demand and capacity predictions and the collaborative planning of traffic flow and capacity provision will be all taken into account. Furthermore, the downstream impacts of the derived DCB solutions to real executions (e.g., AUs’ preferences compliances, flow patterns and ATC workloads) will be assessed.
  • ISOBAR – Convective Weather Mitigation – B2B Service: ISOBAR will integrate convective weather prediction engine, DCB identification and DCB mitigation into a single prototype service framework. The prototype will be able to work from traffic, airspace and meteorological inputs to propose a range of DCB solutions tailored to a given ATFCM timeframe.

Find below the ISOBAR concept block diagram

ISOBAR Concept
ISOBAR Concept

Find below, in the slide show, the ISOBAR meteo engine concept block diagram, the ISOBAR Demand and Capacity characterization concept block diagram, and the ISOBAR mitigation strategy concept block diagram.